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The Saudi Arabian government has recently released details of its Vision 2030 plan, which aims to end the Kingdom's dependence on oil by 2020. The ambitious plan outlines targets such as the establishment of a sovereign wealth fund and the public sale of a portion of state oil giant Saudi Aramco, which could become one of the largest companies globally. However, there are concerns about how the plan will impact Saudi citizens' lives, particularly in relation to job creation, unemployment rates, and the need to increase the private sector's development.
Currently, unemployment is estimated at 29% among Saudi nationals under the age of 30, and with approximately two-thirds of the current population being under 30, job creation must be a significant priority. The workforce remains divided between an overstaffed public sector and an underdeveloped private sector, with over 80% of the latter comprising expatriate laborers. The Vision 2030 plan acknowledges the need to create jobs in new sectors, such as military manufacturing, industrial equipment, and information technology. However, these sectors require specialized training, which poses a significant challenge for Saudis to compete against expatriates who are already employed in these sectors.
Additionally, there are concerns that lower- and middle-income Saudi citizens will feel the effects of subsidy reductions. Although the plan aims to "provide our most vulnerable citizens with tailored care and support," it will be challenging to determine who is most vulnerable without income tax systems and reliable census statistics. Housing is another area in which Saudi citizens face considerable challenges, with the government's previous attempts to address the housing crisis having been largely unsuccessful. The plan proposes to increase the number of homeowners by encouraging private sector firms to enter the market and urging banks to provide mortgage and funding solutions. However, this solution is not without its issues, particularly with regards to bureaucratic hurdles and the high cost of private developers' projects.
The Vision 2030 plan also highlights the government's attempts to make social changes, such as increasing entertainment and cultural activities for citizens. Plans to establish more than 450 registered amateur clubs for culture and entertainment by 2020 are part of the government's plan to increase its involvement in the cultural and social realm. However, there are concerns about the social impact of opening up to tourists and more expatriates through a green card system, with uncertainties around how the state will screen potential tourists or immigrants.
The plan alludes to increasing the percentage of women in the workforce from 22% to 30% by 2030. There are concerns about the types of places and hours during which women can work, given current restrictions on their employment in unsegregated places. With subsidies reduced, women who previously could afford drivers may be less able to employ them. While the plan emphasizes maintaining Saudi culture and religion, including with the establishment of the world's largest Islamic Museum, it focuses on economic change by directing the education system to cater to market needs rather than religion.
Overall, the Vision 2030 project has ambitious goals and acknowledges some of the significant economic and social issues facing Saudi Arabia. However, the plan's success depends on addressing the challenges of job creation, subsidy reductions, and the development of the private sector. Furthermore, there must be consideration given to the impact of the plan on the daily lives of Saudi citizens, particularly lower- and middle-income individuals, women, and young people entering the workforce.
