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Investors in India are preparing for a volatile holiday-truncated week as the March F&O series will expire on March 29, and markets will be closed on March 30 due to Ram Navami. Traders will be adjusting their positions ahead of the new series and watching for February's infrastructure output data set to be released on March 31. This data follows a 7.8% YoY increase in infrastructure output in January, the most in four months. Additionally, traders will be looking at external debt (Q4) data, current account (Q4) data, and foreign exchange reserves data.
International delegates from different countries will converge for participation at the G20 meetings from March 27 to April 4 in Gujarat. Three conclaves will be held in the state on a range of issues. Moreover, around 60 international delegates from 29+ countries will participate in the second G20 Tourism Working Group (TWG) meeting held in Siliguri and Darjeeling from April 1 to April 3, 2023.
The transmission of the news of bank failures adversely affected the sentiment of the equity markets, which remained under stress, says Dr. Joseph Thomas, Head of Research at Emkay Wealth Management. He believes that hard money policy, the hike in the base rate by the Fed and Bank of England, and the persistence of inflation have been viewed as negative for the markets in the immediate term, which could continue to influence market movements in the coming week too.
Investors will be keeping an eye on macroeconomic reports from the US, the world's largest economy. These reports include Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index on March 27, followed by Goods Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories, CB Consumer Confidence, and House Price Index on March 28, API Crude Oil Stock Change, Pending Home Sales on March 29, US GDP Growth Rate, Initial Jobless Claims on March 30, Personal Income, Chicago PMI, Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count on March 31.
Amol Athawale, Technical Analyst (DVP) at Kotak Securities, believes that a reversal formation on daily charts and a bearish candle on weekly charts are indicating further weakness from current levels. As long as the Nifty is trading below 17100, the weak sentiment is likely to continue, and below the same, the index could fall up to 16700. A fresh uptrend is possible only after the dismissal of 17100. For Bank Nifty, 39750 or the 200-day SMA would act as a trend decider level, below which the index could slip till 39000-38700. On the flip side, above the 200-day SMA or 39750, it could rally till the 20-day SMA or 40200-40300.
