Tooze is optimistic that recent economic news out of China, Europe, and the US indicates that the risk of a global recession is low. However, he warns that there is still much weakness in lower-income, heavily-indebted, import-dependent economies, which could be concerning for billions of people. Tooze also cautions that we are entering a poly-crisis decade, with a pandemic, war, and looming global recession already present. He believes that the pandemic is the most significant risk factor for the global economy, as it continues to mutate, and we have not seen a thoroughly lethal strain since the Delta variant.
When asked about the theme of the World Economic Forum, cooperation in a fragmented world, Tooze expressed his belief that the major powers are buying into a new multipolarity, with players like India, Indonesia, Turkey, and Brazil as major pieces of a global jigsaw puzzle. He does not believe that the new era of globalization will be the same deep supply-chain story we had in the 90s and 2000s. Instead, he thinks the new configuration of the global economy will have a degree of resilience, with India being a major player. Although India does not have a great track record in the manufacturing supply chain, Apple's entry into India might be a sign of things to come in the future.
Tooze’s insights and warnings are crucial, given the uncertain times we live in. The world is facing a pandemic, a war, and an impending recession, with billions of people in lower-income, heavily-indebted, import-dependent economies at risk. While there are reasons to be optimistic, there are also reasons to be concerned. It is essential to take Tooze’s insights seriously and consider the risks and opportunities of the new era of globalization we are entering.
