As China's tensions with Taiwan escalate, India's former military chiefs embark on a strategic mission to Taipei, igniting speculations about India's stance on the China-Taiwan conflict. Admiral Karambir Singh, General M.M. Naravane, and Chief of Air Staff R.K.S. Bhadauria are in Taiwan for the Ketagalan Forum’s 2023 Indo-Pacific Security Dialogue, signaling India's engagement in the conversation surrounding the regional turmoil.
Deliberate Moves Amidst Rising Aggression
China's belligerent stance towards Taiwan has garnered international attention, with Beijing relentlessly pushing its claim on the island nation. In response, India is exploring a more proactive approach. Historically, New Delhi has been cautious in its handling of the China-Taiwan dispute, but the recent surge in Chinese military activities has spurred India to reconsider its strategy.
A Calculated Shift in Approach
Traditionally, India followed the 'One China policy,' adhering to Beijing's stance on Taiwan. However, the changing dynamics and China's growing aggression are compelling Indian leadership to evaluate alternative courses of action. With India itself facing territorial tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China, the Indian military leadership is strategically assessing its response to a potential Chinese move against Taiwan.
The Complex Geopolitical Landscape
The Indian military's presence in Taipei raises questions about its motivations and future moves. The Indian establishment recognizes that a full-scale conflict in the Taiwan Strait could have far-reaching consequences, affecting India's economy and security. This realization has prompted a section of Indian leadership to consider offering support to Taiwan against China's aggressive tactics.
India's Evolving Preparedness
The Indian military's involvement in the Taiwan issue has prompted an internal review of its preparedness and responses. The office of the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) Gen. Anil Chauhan has called upon the three services to formulate suggestions and strategies for India in case the Taiwan situation escalates into a full-blown crisis.
Balancing Diplomacy and Strategic Interests
India's engagement with the Taiwan issue poses diplomatic challenges due to its adherence to the 'One China policy.' However, the possibility of the US and its allies rallying behind Taiwan could lead to a reconsideration of India's stance. The Logistics-Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) between India and the US, which facilitates mutual support in times of need, adds a layer of complexity to India's decision-making process.
China's Aggressive Messaging
China's recent airing of the documentary "Chasing Dreams," highlighting the PLA's preparations for a potential attack on Taiwan, underscores its assertiveness. The documentary showcases military drills and soldiers expressing their willingness to invade Taiwan, emphasizing China's determined posture.
A Delicate Balancing Act
India finds itself delicately treading the line between its diplomatic commitments and its strategic interests. While steering clear of a formal shift in policy, the Indian military's engagement in Taipei signifies a nuanced recalibration of its approach to the China-Taiwan conflict. As the geopolitical landscape evolves, India's role in shaping the dynamics of the Indo-Pacific region gains significance.
