In a thought-provoking opinion piece, Col Deepak Kumar highlights the growing concerns surrounding Pakistan's nuclear weapons and the potential threat they pose to regional and global security. The article emphasizes the need for a collaborative approach between the United States and India to address the alarming possibility of a "loose nuke" scenario in Pakistan. With the country plagued by internal instability, terrorist organizations, and a history of nuclear proliferation, the article delves into the risks associated with Pakistan's nuclear arsenal and explores potential strategies to mitigate this critical security problem.
The Threat of Loose Nukes:
Pakistan's unstable environment, coupled with its historical involvement in nuclear proliferation, raises serious concerns about the safety and security of its nuclear weapons. The recent wave of protests and anarchy in the country have further heightened these worries. The presence of Islamist terrorist groups and the deteriorating law and order situation have created a plausible scenario where extremist elements could gain access to Pakistan's nuclear sites. This potential development has serious implications for global security, especially for neighboring India and the United States.
Assessing the Risk:
The US Intelligence Community's Annual Threat Assessment acknowledges the expansion of nuclear weapons stockpiles and their delivery systems, particularly in regions experiencing increased conflict involving nuclear states like Pakistan. The article underscores the urgency for India and the US to evaluate the situation continually and update their contingency plans to effectively tackle this security challenge. It further delves into the historical concerns raised by US presidents, recognizing Pakistan as one of the most dangerous nations due to its nuclear weapons without proper cohesion.
Understanding the Potential Scenarios:
The article examines three potential scenarios concerning Pakistan's nuclear weapons. First, it highlights the risk of insiders within the nuclear establishment collaborating with external actors to gain access to weapons or materials. Second, it explores the possibility of growing instability leading to a "loose nuke" scenario, where a terrorist group, such as the Tahrik e Taliban Pakistan (TTP), takes over a facility with or without insider support. The worst-case scenario envisions a radicalized faction within the military orchestrating a coup and assuming control over the nuclear arsenal. While the probability of such events may vary, it is crucial to consider all potential risks.
Addressing the Challenge:
The Strategic Plans Division (SPD) in Pakistan claims that their soldiers and civilians undergo rigorous screening to ensure integrity and loyalty. However, given the religious extremism prevalent in Pakistani society and the existence of groups like Umma-Tameer-e-Nau (UTN), infiltration within the nuclear establishment cannot be ruled out. The article highlights the vulnerability of Pakistan's nuclear sites, with past incidents revealing militant targeting and the covert movement of nuclear warheads. It also underscores the fear within Pakistan of potential seizure by the US, a concern that has escalated since the Abbottabad raid that killed Osama bin Laden.
A Joint Approach: US-India Collaboration:
Recognizing the gravity of the situation, the article recommends a joint plan between the US and India to address the contingency of a loose nuke scenario in Pakistan. Leveraging India's proximity, cultural familiarity, and competent Special Forces, the collaboration could enhance the effectiveness of US efforts to quickly seize, contain, and disable any potential threat. India's Nuclear Emergency Response Task Force could also contribute to radiological clean-up missions, while US technological expertise in remote disablement of nuclear weapons would be invaluable. The article acknowledges that addressing a nuclear crisis transcends traditional alliance politics and emphasizes the importance of joint counter-terrorism and disaster response exercises as a foundation for this collaborative strategy.
Conclusion:
With Pakistan's internal turmoil and the potential risks associated with its nuclear weapons, it is imperative for the United States and India to strategize and plan together for worst-case scenarios. The article stresses the need for vigilance, regular updates to contingency plans, and ongoing collaboration to ensure swift and effective action in the event of a loose nuke crisis. While the Pakistani nuclear program may hold symbolic significance, the prevailing circumstances demand a proactive approach to safeguard regional and global peace. By leveraging their respective strengths, the US and India can play a vital role in addressing this critical security challenge and averting a potential catastrophe.
